If you’re wondering about the background and significance of the unfolding Russia Ukraine conflict, here is a 10-point overview. I hope by the end you’ll see why this matters, not just for the people of Ukraine, but also for you.
#Pray4Ukraine
1. Millennia long ties
Russia and Ukraine have been nearly inseparable for over a millennia. The history of the two countries goes back to the 9th century, where the people of Ukraine, Russia and Belarus were ruled as a single Slavic state under one head. Fast forward centuries and the Soviet Union was formed in the 1900s, comprising 15 independent Republics. Russia and Ukraine, respectively, were the most powerful of these, remaining close allies. As a gesture of this, and in a bid to further strengthen their bond, in 1954 the then Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev handed the Russian province of Crimea (a small peninsula located in the Black Sea) to Ukraine. At the time this wasn’t too big a deal, as Russia and Ukraine were both a part of the Soviet Union.
2. The Cold War, NATO, and fall of the Soviet Union
Shortly after WW2, from approximately 1947 on, geopolitical tensions grew between the USA and the Soviet Union. In time, this enduring chest thumping became known as The Cold War, Cold as in there were no direct full scale military attacks. An intergovernmental military alliance was established in 1949 to provide collective security intelligence against the Soviet Union. This became known as The North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO). The two dominant Soviet Union powers, Russia and Ukraine, were buddied up and together they vehemently opposed the USA and her NATO allies. When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, Ukraine and Russia became completely independent nations, and — significantly — Crimea remained a part of Ukraine.
3. Corruption, Kiev, and the Kremlin
Viktor Yanukovych served as the 4th President of Ukraine from 2010 to 2014. He was super pro-Russia and basically handicapped Ukraine from leaving the economic and political playground of the Kremlin. For example, in 2013 Ukraine was facing economic crisis and needed a foreign deal. Would they move towards Continental Europe to the West, or would they remain in lock step with Russia to the East? After some time and negotiation Yanukovych abruptly backed out of the EU Trade Deal. Speaking from the sidelines, Putin said he had nothing against the deal, but his petty $15 billion cash bailout for Ukraine would suggest otherwise. So turning his back to the West and walking East, Yanukovych’s administration said “I do” at the altar of the Kremlin before the presiding Putin, and Kiev was politically and economically wed to Moscow. Many Ukrainians objected to this and began to protest leading to all out civil unrest — unrest which continues to this day. Russia backed Yanukovych and his supporters, the USA / West backed the protesters. The protesters won by majority, and in 2014 Yanukovych’s administration collapsed, forcing him to flee Ukraine and seek asylum in Russia.
4. Civil unrest
When Yanukovych fled in 2014, Ukraine’s population was divided. On the Russian speaking Eastern side (Donbas) are the minority rebel separatists who became increasingly disenfranchised after the fall of Yanukovych. On strength of their shared history, they saw Russia as a friend, not a foe. On the other Ukrainian speaking Western side are the majority citizens, including today’s government under Volodymyr Zelenskyy — the 6th President of Ukraine. To this day, Ukraine has been engaged in an East vs West civil war with Russia literally fuelling the Eastern rebel separatist side in a bid to undermine Ukrainian sovereignty.
5. The annexation of Crimea
Russia was super annoyed when they lost their puppet Ukrainian President, Yanukovych, in 2014. Putin struck back by annexing Crimea, that 60 year old Soviet Union Khrushchev gift. With full military occupation, Putin put out a referendum and the Crimean’s voted to side with Russia β¦ β¦ β¦ Or so we’re told. Putin called it “liberation”, the rest of the world, “annexation.”
6. Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 (MH17)
Russia continued to fuel the Ukrainian rebel separatists who began seizing Ukrainian territory in the East. At first the Ukrainian government located in the West didn’t get involved. But then, on July 17, 2014, the separatist rebels — armed with Russian tech — shot down MH17, a scheduled passenger flight from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur. All 283 passengers and 15 crew were killed. They allegedly mistook it for the Ukrainian government. In response, the Ukrainian government rolled into the East to squash the separatist rebellion. The rebels lost ground before their big bordering brother rolled onto Ukrainian soil in the form of Russian tanks.
7. The Minska Agreement
The West looked on with increasing concern as the Russians got further and further involved in Ukraine’s civil war. Discussions were had, and eventually an agreement was reached. There would be a ceasefire, military withdrawal, and Eastern Ukrainians would be able to vote for local leadership. Eight years on, these Minska Agreements have not been implemented.
8. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine (2022)
This all leads us to Russia’s invasion of Donbas, or Eastern Ukraine, earlier today. Clearly, this had been coming for a while. Putin tells us he’s simply looking after those Eastern Ukrainians friendly with Russia, who are being oppressed by the Ukrainian government. But there’s obviously more to the story. For example, Western Ukraine wants to join NATO, but Putin does not want Ukraine to join NATO because that would put Russia on a collision course with the West who would back their NATO allies. (ππ©π’π΅ πͺπ΄ π’ ππ3 π΅πΊπ±π¦ π΄π€π¦π―π’π³πͺπ°, π£π΅πΈ). So Putin is moving in now to take control while he can while it is difficult for the West to interfere. And there are many other Russian domestic, historic, political and economical incentives for Putin. Ukraine has much to offer the Kremlin, who has been sanctioned hard over the years by Western powers.
9. What this means for you
Putin has strong national support for everything he’s doing at the moment. A large number of Russians consider Ukrainian independence a historical mistake — again, when you look at history, Ukraine and Russia are barely separable pre-1991. But Russia’s claim to Ukraine based on a Soviet mentality and colonial history is simply unacceptable in the 21st century. It is analogous to the British laying claim to Australia today, or the Spanish laying claim to the Americas. Past imperialism is no justification for present day expansionism.
Admittedly, it is a little tricky right now for the West to get involved in the Russia Ukraine conflict. Not being a part of NATO, Ukraine is basically on its own. So this will be interesting to watch. But if Putin rolls in and annexes all of Ukraine (and he easily could), then the precedent is set and we have cause for concern beyond Europe. For example, Xi Jinping in China could see that Putin got what he wanted with little resistance, so what’s to stop him from making a move to try and take back Taiwan for similar historic, political, strategic and economic reasons? There is an important difference here, though. Taiwan, unlike Ukraine, is much closer to Western powers such as the USA, Japan and Australia. We aren’t strictly allies, but our relationships are extremely important, and I think there is a higher probability we will get involved militarily in that scenario. If we didn’t, then I don’t think it’s rhetoric to say that that would be the beginning of the end of the West. It would be a signal to the world that democracy doesnt defend democracy against tyranny. In a world where Russia can walk over Ukraine without consequence, whats to stop Putin from marching through the continent? In a world where China can bully Taiwan into submission without consequence, what’s to stop Xi Jinping from taking other islands, even a very large one here down under?
In many ways, Ukraine is Russia’s proxy war with the West and Taiwan is China’s proxy war with the West. So what will we, the West, do? Hopefully turn off MAFS and pay attention.
10. In short…
Sometimes a sheepdog needs to protect the sheep by attacking the wolves. Today the wolves got into the paddock.
